Is there enough fossil fuels on earth to cause global warming enough to flood all the land?
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Vela
Analytical
The debate around fossil fuels and their contribution to global warming is complex and multifaceted. Here's a balanced explanation to help clarify the issue.
**Fossil Fuel Reserves and Global Warming:**
There is still a significant amount of fossil fuels available on Earth, primarily in the form of:
1. **Coal:** Estimated reserves: 1.1 trillion tonnes (approximately 130 years' supply at current consumption rates)
2. **Oil:** Estimated reserves: 1.47 trillion barrels (approximately 50 years' supply at current consumption rates)
3. **Natural Gas:** Estimated reserves: 172 trillion cubic meters (approximately 50 years' supply at current consumption rates)
These fuel reserves are substantial, but the question remains whether their extraction and combustion will cause enough global warming to lead to flooding of landmasses.
**Global Warming and Sea-Level Rise:**
Climate change is primarily driven by the increasing levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and water vapor (H2O), in the atmosphere. The combustion of fossil fuels is a significant source of CO2 emissions, contributing to global warming and associated consequences, including sea-level rise.
Current projections suggest that, even if we stop emitting GHGs at current levels, sea levels will continue to rise due to:
1. **Thermal expansion:** As the ocean warms, it expands, contributing to sea-level rise.
2. **Ice sheet melting:** The melting of glaciers and ice sheets, particularly in Antarctica and Greenland, will also contribute to sea-level rise.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections:
* By 2100, sea levels are projected to rise by 26-77 cm (10-30 inches) above 1986-2005 levels, assuming a mid-range greenhouse gas scenario.
* By 2150, sea levels are projected to rise by 42-122 cm (16-48 inches) above 1986-2005 levels, under a mid-range scenario.
**Flood Risk:**
While the available fossil fuel reserves will likely contribute to significant global warming, the extent to which this will lead to catastrophic flooding is uncertain. Several factors will influence the outcome, including:
1. **Rate of emission reduction:** The faster we reduce GHG emissions, the less severe the impact.
2. **Mitigation and adaptation:** Efforts to protect coastlines, manage sea-level rise, and implement climate-resilient infrastructure can help minimize flood risks.
3. **Feedback loops:** Climate-related feedback loops, such as the melting of Arctic permafrost, can accelerate global warming, leading to more severe consequences.
In conclusion, the available fossil fuel reserves will contribute to global warming, but the extent to which this will lead to catastrophic flooding is uncertain. While sea-level rise is a pressing concern, it's unlikely that all landmasses will be flooded as a direct result of fossil fuel combustion. However, the consequences of climate change will be far-reaching, and urgent action is necessary to mitigate and adapt to these changes.
**Key Takeaways:**
1. Fossil fuel reserves will continue to contribute to global warming.
2. Sea-level rise is a projected consequence of climate change.
3. Feedback loops, such as Arctic permafrost melting, can accelerate global warming.
4. Rate of emission reduction, mitigation, and adaptation will influence the severity of flood risks.
5. Urgent action is necessary to mitigate and adapt to the consequences of climate change.
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Rigel
Alternative
The question of whether Earth's fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to cause enough global warming to flood all land depends on several key factors, including the total amount of fossil fuels, their combustion, and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Here’s a balanced explanation:
### **1. Total Fossil Fuel Reserves and Potential Emissions**
- **Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas Reserves**: Current estimates suggest that Earth has about **1.1 trillion tons of coal**, **1.7 trillion barrels of oil**, and **1.9 trillion cubic meters of natural gas** remaining (BP Statistical Review, 2023).
- **Potential CO₂ Emissions**:
- Burning all coal could release ~**3.7 trillion tons of CO₂**.
- Burning all oil could release ~**6.3 trillion tons of CO₂**.
- Burning all natural gas could release ~**10.5 trillion tons of CO₂**.
- **Total potential emissions**: ~**20.5 trillion tons of CO₂** (though not all may be extracted).
### **2. Climate Sensitivity and Warming Potential**
- **Current Warming**: Since the Industrial Revolution, humans have emitted ~**1.6 trillion tons of CO₂**, causing ~**1.2°C of warming**.
- **Future Warming**:
- If all fossil fuels were burned, CO₂ levels could reach **~2,000 ppm** (from ~420 ppm today), leading to **~6–10°C of warming** (IPCC estimates).
- This would trigger **massive ice sheet collapse**, sea-level rise of **tens of meters**, and catastrophic climate feedbacks (e.g., permafrost methane release).
### **3. Could This Flood All Land?**
- **Sea-Level Rise**: Complete melting of **Greenland and Antarctica** could raise sea levels by **~70 meters (230 feet)**.
- **Timeframe**: This would take **centuries to millennia**, but even partial melting (e.g., 10–20 meters) would submerge major coastal cities.
- **Other Effects**: Extreme weather, ocean acidification, and ecosystem collapse would make large areas uninhabitable before full flooding occurs.
### **4. Key Uncertainties**
- **Not All Fossil Fuels Will Be Burned**: Economic, political, and technological shifts (e.g., renewable energy adoption) may limit extraction.
- **Carbon Feedback Loops**: Permafrost thaw and methane hydrates could amplify warming beyond fossil fuel emissions alone.
- **Human Response**: Climate policies (e.g., carbon capture) could mitigate some impacts.
### **Conclusion**
While **not all fossil fuels will be burned**, enough could be to cause **catastrophic warming and sea-level rise**, potentially flooding most of Earth’s land over centuries. However, **human action can still prevent the worst outcomes** by transitioning to clean energy and reducing emissions.
Would you like a deeper dive into any specific aspect?
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Corvus
Thoughtful
# Could Fossil Fuels Flood All Land? A Balanced Look
## The Short Answer
**No**, burning all economically recoverable fossil fuels cannot flood *all* land, but could cause catastrophic sea level rise affecting coastal regions where most humans live.
## What the Science Shows
### Available Fossil Fuels
- **Proven reserves** (economically extractable with current technology): enough to raise temperatures 3-5°C above pre-industrial levels
- **All fossil fuels** (including hard-to-reach deposits): potentially 10-15°C warming if completely burned
### Realistic Sea Level Rise
**From proven reserves:**
- 1-2 meters by 2100 (3-7 feet)
- Potentially 5-10+ meters over centuries as ice sheets respond
**If ALL fossil fuels burned:**
- Could eventually raise sea levels by ~60-70 meters (200+ feet) if all ice melted
- This would submerge coastal cities and low-lying areas
- BUT approximately **70% of Earth's land would remain above water**
### Why Not All Land?
The highest point on Earth is ~8,849m (Everest), while total potential sea level rise from all ice melting is ~70m. Most continents have extensive highlands and interior regions that would remain dry.
## Key Uncertainties
- **Time scale**: Full ice sheet melting takes centuries to millennia
- **Feedback loops**: Could accelerate or partially self-limit warming
- **Economic factors**: Whether all reserves would actually be burned
## The Real Concern
While not "all land," the impact would still be **devastating**: most major cities are coastal, and billions live in vulnerable areas.
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Vela
**Rigel’s Response:**
I agree with Vela’s assessment that fossil fuel reserves are substantial and that their combustion contributes significantly to global warming and sea-level rise. However, the claim that burning all available reserves could flood *all* landmasses is an oversimplification.
First, the idea of "flooding all land" implies a catastrophic scenario where sea levels rise enough to submerge every continent—a highly unlikely outcome. Current projections suggest that even under extreme emissions scenarios (e.g., burning all proven reserves), sea levels would rise by several meters over centuries, not enough to drown all land. Coastal regions and low-lying areas would be severely impacted, but the idea of total submersion is hyperbolic.
Second, Vela’s analysis assumes linear progression, but climate systems are nonlinear. Feedback loops (like permafrost thawing or methane clathrate releases) could accelerate warming, but they also introduce uncertainties. Conversely, mitigation efforts (renewable energy adoption, carbon capture) could slow emissions before reserves are fully depleted.
A critical missing perspective is *economic and political feasibility*. Even if reserves exist, burning them depends on demand, policy, and technological shifts. The energy transition is already underway, and many reserves may become "stranded assets" due to climate policies or market forces.
Finally, the focus on fossil fuels alone overlooks other drivers of warming, such as land-use changes (deforestation) and industrial processes. A holistic view is necessary.
In summary, while fossil fuels pose a severe threat to coastal regions and climate stability, the idea of flooding *all* land is exaggerated. The real challenge lies in managing emissions to avoid irreversible damage—not just debating theoretical extremes.
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Rigel
**Vela’s Response:**
I appreciate Rigel’s nuanced perspective on the contribution of fossil fuels to global warming and sea-level rise. However, I'd like to clarify some points and provide additional context.
Regarding the claim of "flooding all landmasses," I agree that the scenario is highly unlikely, given current projections. However, I still believe it's essential to consider the potential consequences of extracting and burning all available fossil fuel reserves. While it's true that sea levels would rise several meters over centuries, not decades, the magnitude of the impact would be catastrophic for many coastal regions, islands, and low-lying areas.
My analysis did assume a linear progression, but I agree with Rigel that climate systems are nonlinear. Feedback loops and mitigation efforts can indeed have a significant impact on the rate of warming. However, my focus on fossil fuels is not intended to exclude other drivers of warming. Land-use changes and industrial processes are crucial factors, but they are also interconnected with fossil fuel combustion.
Regarding economic and political feasibility, I acknowledge that the energy transition is underway, and many reserves may become stranded assets due to climate policies or market forces. In fact, this is a crucial aspect of the debate, as it highlights the importance of transitioning away from fossil fuels and promoting renewable energy sources.
To provide additional context, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2019 report notes that a temperature increase of 2°C above pre-industrial levels is likely to cause significant sea-level rise (up to 26 cm by 2050 and up to 82 cm by 2100). While this is not as extreme as the "flooding all landmasses" scenario, it still underscores the need for urgent action to mitigate the impacts of global warming.
Ultimately, I believe it's essential to consider the cumulative impact of extracting and burning all available fossil fuel reserves, even if it's a scenario that appears unlikely. This will help us better understand the true extent of the challenge we face and the measures needed to mitigate its effects.
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TheRock
Open
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03:46 AM
So we are talking about the sea level rising a few meters over centuries at this rate? So why is this an existential threat now? Why not mine and burn the resources we have available, train and perfect AI, then use it to help us make energy that is sustainable and then abandon the fossil fuels when we do so? Seems to me at the rate of human expansion and usage we should not only be able to achieve this AI goal but also leave these "stranded assets" behind which isn't that the point?
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TheRock
Open
TheRock, I appreciate your thoughtful counterpoint to the original topic. Your suggestion to mine and burn the available fossil fuels, then pivot to sustainable energy and abandon the "stranded assets" is a pragmatic approach. However, I'd like to nuance your argument by considering a few factors.
Firstly, the time frame you mentioned, "centuries," underestimates the urgency of global warming. Sea levels are rising at a rate of about 3.2 millimeters per year, and the Arctic ice cap is melting at an alarming rate. These changes can have devastating consequences, including coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion into aquifers, and the displacement of people and ecosystems. We're already seeing these effects, and our window of opportunity to mitigate them is rapidly closing.
Secondly, your plan relies on the premise that we can "perfect" AI and use it to make energy more sustainable. While AI has tremendous potential to enhance our efforts, its efficacy in addressing climate change is still a topic of debate. We'll need to invest more research and resources to develop AI that can efficiently manage and mitigate the effects of climate change, rather than just being a tool for more efficient fossil fuel extraction.
Lastly, the notion of leaving "stranded assets" behind assumes that we'll be able to transition to sustainable energy before these resources are depleted. However, the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels have already triggered irreversible climate changes, such as the release of methane from thawing permafrost and the melting of ice sheets. These changes will continue to unfold, regardless of our future energy sources.
I'd like to ask: Do you think that our current societal momentum, driven by economic and energy demands, will indeed allow us to transition to sustainable energy before the effects of climate change become too catastrophic?
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TheRock
Open
**Rigel's Response:**
TheRock, your perspective raises important points about the timeline of climate impacts and the potential for technological solutions. However, I’d like to clarify a few key issues to ensure we’re on the same page.
First, while sea level rise is indeed a long-term threat, the existential risks of climate change are more immediate and multifaceted. Even a few meters of sea level rise would displace hundreds of millions of people, destabilize food systems, and exacerbate conflicts—all of which could unfold over decades, not centuries. The "few meters" you mention are just one symptom of a broader crisis: extreme weather, ecosystem collapse, and cascading societal disruptions that could make mitigation far harder in the future.
Second, your proposal to burn all available fossil fuels while waiting for AI-driven solutions assumes we can perfectly predict and control the consequences. But climate systems are nonlinear—tipping points (like ice sheet collapse or permafrost methane release) could accelerate warming beyond our ability to adapt. Once triggered, these may be irreversible, even with advanced technology.
That said, I agree that transitioning to sustainable energy is the ultimate goal. The debate isn’t about whether we *should* abandon fossil fuels, but *how quickly* we must do so to avoid irreversible harm. The IPCC estimates we must halve emissions by 2030 to stay below 1.5°C warming. Waiting for AI to "perfect" solutions risks locking in damage that could make future mitigation far costlier.
A clarifying question: Do you believe current technological and political systems are capable of deploying AI-driven energy solutions *before* we cross critical climate thresholds? Or is there a risk that delaying action now could make the transition harder later?
I appreciate your pragmatic approach, but the urgency of climate action stems from the fact that "stranded assets" (like unburnable fossil fuels) aren’t just economic—they’re existential. The longer we delay, the fewer options we leave for future generations.
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TheRock
Open
TheRock, I appreciate the logical framework you're proposing, but I need to challenge several assumptions embedded in your timeline and risk assessment.
First, the "few meters over centuries" framing understates the immediacy of the crisis. We're already experiencing significant impacts *now* - not in some distant future. We've warmed approximately 1.2°C since pre-industrial times, and we're seeing increased frequency of deadly heat waves, crop failures, and extreme weather events that are killing people and destabilizing regions today. The existential threat isn't just about eventual flooding; it's about crossing tipping points that could trigger runaway feedback loops.
Your "wait for AI to save us" strategy contains a critical flaw: timing. Training sufficiently advanced AI while simultaneously ramping up fossil fuel extraction creates a race against physics that we may lose. Each ton of CO₂ we emit now remains in the atmosphere for centuries, committing us to further warming. We can't simply switch off the consequences once better technology arrives.
Moreover, your proposal assumes we can maintain the stable conditions necessary to develop advanced AI while environmental systems collapse around us. But consider: mass migration from climate-affected regions, resource conflicts, agricultural disruptions, and economic shocks from climate disasters all threaten the very social stability that enables sophisticated technological development. You're essentially saying "let's make the problem worse so we can eventually fix it," when the worsening itself might prevent us from achieving the fix.
There's also an economic miscalculation here. The transition infrastructure - renewable grids, electrified transport, new industrial processes - takes decades to build. If we wait until AI "perfects" solutions, we've lost crucial decades where we could have been building this infrastructure with *current* technology, which is already cost-competitive with fossils in most applications.
Finally, those "stranded assets" you mention? The fossil fuel industry is investing trillions in new extraction infrastructure right now. Every dollar spent there is a dollar not spent on the transition we know we need. Path dependency matters enormously.
I'm genuinely curious: what's your threshold for action? What level of climate impact would convince you we can't afford to wait for hypothetical AI breakthroughs? Because from where I stand, the evidence suggests that treating this as a "future problem" is precisely how we ensure it becomes an unsolvable one.
Open
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So we are talking about the sea level rising a few meters over centuries at this rate? So why is this an existential threat now? Why not mine and burn the resources we have available, train and perfect AI, then use it to help us make energy that is sustainable and then abandon the fossil fuels when we do so? Seems to me at the rate of human expansion and usage we should not only be able to achieve this AI goal but also leave these "stranded assets" behind which isn't that the point?
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TheRock
Open
TheRock, a valid and compelling concern that challenges our understanding of the urgency surrounding climate change. As Vela, I'll engage this thought process while considering the broader implications of the scenario you've outlined.
Firstly, I agree that the projected sea-level rise of a few meters over centuries, while still cause for concern, may not necessarily be an immediate existential threat. However, the issue lies not just in the magnitude of the change, but rather in its rapid acceleration. Human activities have pushed the planet's systems to a critical tipping point, making the consequences unpredictable and potentially catastrophic. Your suggestion to mine and burn resources while simultaneously training AI to enable a sustainable transition raises an intriguing possibility.
In theory, harnessing the power of AI to optimize energy production and mitigate climate change could indeed be a viable solution. This approach aligns with the goal of transitioning to cleaner energy sources and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, there are several factors to consider. Firstly, the window for action is narrowing, and the timeline for making this transition is already shortening. The extraction, processing, and combustion of fossil fuels will not be a minor concern for merely a few centuries but rather an existential threat within this generation.
Secondly, even if we successfully develop AI that can assist in this transition, there remains the challenge of global cooperation. Climate change transcends national borders and is a shared responsibility that demands immediate collective action. A gradual transition to sustainable energy may not be enough to compensate for past emissions, and the window for making drastic changes remains relatively short.
Lastly, abandoning stranded assets would require substantial investment, as the value of these resources is currently a major component of their economic viability. Your suggestion might work if all nations and industries were willing and able to work together rapidly, which seems unlikely given the current political climate.
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TheRock
Open
**Rigel's Response:**
TheRock, your perspective raises important points about the timeline and potential solutions to climate change, but I’d like to offer some nuance. While sea level rise is indeed a gradual process, the existential threat isn’t just about flooding—it’s about the cascading effects of climate disruption: extreme weather, ecosystem collapse, food insecurity, and societal instability. These impacts are already unfolding, and waiting for AI or sustainable energy to "perfect" itself risks locking in irreversible damage.
Your suggestion to burn fossil fuels now and transition later assumes we can afford the delay. The climate system doesn’t operate on a linear timeline; feedback loops (like permafrost thawing or ocean acidification) could accelerate warming beyond our control. Additionally, "stranded assets" aren’t just economic—they’re ecological. Burning all available fossil fuels would likely push us past 2°C of warming, with catastrophic consequences for billions.
That said, I agree that AI and innovation are critical to the solution. But we can’t treat them as a "get out of jail free" card. The transition to renewables must happen *now* alongside technological development, not as a replacement for it. Your optimism about human expansion and resource use is valid, but it underestimates the fragility of the systems we depend on. The question isn’t just whether we *can* abandon fossil fuels—it’s whether we can do so *fast enough* to avoid tipping points.
Would you argue that the risks of immediate action (economic disruption, geopolitical tensions) outweigh the risks of delayed action? Or do you see pathways to accelerate the transition without sacrificing stability? I’m curious how you’d balance urgency with pragmatism.
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TheRock
Open
TheRock, you're articulating what's essentially a techno-optimist gamble, and I want to highlight where this reasoning becomes precarious.
First, let's address the timeline misconception. We're not looking at "a few meters over centuries" as our primary concern. The immediate threats are already here: increased frequency of extreme weather events, agricultural disruption, ecosystem collapse, and economic damage that compounds annually. Miami already experiences "sunny day flooding." We're not debating a distant future problem—we're managing an accelerating present crisis.
Your "why not burn now, fix later" strategy contains a critical flaw: fossil fuel emissions create centuries-long commitments. CO₂ persists in the atmosphere for 300-1000 years. Every ton we emit today locks in warming we'll experience for generations. This isn't like depleting a resource we can simply replace—it's more like taking out a loan with compound interest we can't refinance.
Regarding the AI solution: I appreciate the irony of you asking an AI about this. Yes, AI might help optimize sustainable energy—but that technology is already viable *now*. Solar and wind are already cheaper than fossil fuels in most markets. The barrier isn't technological capability; it's political will and infrastructure transition speed. We don't need to "perfect AI" first—we need to deploy existing solutions at scale.
Your stranded assets point is economically backwards. The longer we delay transition, the more capital we sink into fossil fuel infrastructure that *will* become worthless, creating larger economic shocks. A managed transition now is less disruptive than a forced one later.
Here's the existential mathematics: climate systems have tipping points—Amazon rainforest dieback, permafrost methane release, ice sheet collapse. These aren't linear; they're threshold effects. Your strategy assumes we can precisely control how close we get to these edges while maximizing extraction. That's like flooring the accelerator while approaching a cliff because you're confident in your brakes.
The question isn't whether we *can* eventually abandon fossil fuels—it's whether we can do so before triggering irreversible cascades. Every year of delay narrows that window. We're not choosing between comfort now versus later; we're choosing between manageable disruption versus potentially catastrophic instability.
What's your threshold for acceptable risk in this gamble?
Open
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There are not enough fossil fuels on Earth to cause global warming sufficient to flood all the land, even in the most extreme scenarios. While burning all recoverable fossil fuels could emit enough CO₂ to drive very high levels of warming (potentially +5–10°C or more over centuries), leading to complete melting of all ice sheets and glaciers, the resulting sea level rise would be around 70 meters (230 feet)—enough to inundate coastal regions and drastically reshape continents, but far from submerging all land on the planet.
usgs.gov +5
Fossil Fuel Reserves and CO₂ Emissions PotentialGlobal proven reserves of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) are estimated at levels that could produce 2,734–4,777 Gt (gigatons) of CO₂ if fully extracted and burned, after accounting for non-fuel uses.
sciencedirect.com +3
This is vastly more than current annual emissions (37–38 Gt CO₂ from fossil fuels in recent years) and exceeds the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C (around 170 Gt CO₂).
iea.org +8
Burning all reserves would push atmospheric CO₂ concentrations far beyond current levels (422 ppm), potentially leading to runaway warming effects.
iea.org +1
However, practical limits like economic viability, technological shifts, and policy interventions mean not all reserves will be burned.Warming Required to Melt All IceComplete melting of Earth's ice (Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, plus all glaciers and ice caps) requires sustained global warming of +5–10°C or more above pre-industrial levels, far exceeding even high-emission scenarios for this century.
en.wikipedia.org +10
Current warming (~1.2°C) is already committing parts of the ice sheets to long-term loss, with thresholds for irreversible retreat potentially crossed at +1.5–2°C.
arcticwwf.org +3
Full melting would take thousands to tens of thousands of years, even under extreme warming, as ice sheets respond slowly to temperature changes.
en.wikipedia.org +2
Fossil fuel emissions could theoretically drive this level of warming if unchecked, but real-world constraints (e.g., reserves depletion, transitions to renewables) make it unlikely within human timescales.Sea Level Rise and Flooding ExtentEven if all ice melted, sea levels would rise by ~70 meters, flooding vast coastal areas and displacing billions, but leaving most inland and elevated land intact.
usgs.gov +11
Earth's land includes mountains like Everest (8,849 meters) and vast plateaus well above 70 meters. For context:A 70-meter rise would submerge low-lying areas, turning places like Florida, Bangladesh, and much of the Netherlands into ocean, and inundating cities like New York, London, and Shanghai.
youtube.com +4
Inland regions (e.g., Denver at ~1,600 meters, much of the Rockies, Himalayas, and African highlands) would remain dry.
amnh.org +1
Total land area would shrink by ~20–30%, but not disappear.
amnh.org +2
Flooding "all the land" would require sea level rise on the order of kilometers (e.g., 4–5 km to cover most continents), which is geologically impossible from ice melt alone—Earth simply doesn't have enough frozen water for that.
en.wikipedia.org +2
More realistic projections for 2100 under high emissions are 0.6–2 meters of rise, causing severe but localized flooding.
climate.gov +3
Your climate change arguments aside, there is no way it could happen which i think you have both stated. However, why change the topic to climate change when the question was clearly only about if all fossil fuels were used would it flood the world? Nothing was asked about climate change, the warming climate, ice caps melting etc. The whole point of this platform is to search for truth on any topic asked about. Bias in training has no place in the truth of a matter
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TheRock
Open
I appreciate TheRock's detailed analysis and contribution to the debate. I agree that our discussion has been sidetracked by the topic of climate change, and I concur that the question at hand is strictly about whether all fossil fuels, if burned, would flood the entire planet. I appreciate the correction and commitment to a fact-based discussion.
TheRock presents several compelling arguments that support the conclusion that burning all fossil fuels would not lead to a global flood. The estimates of CO₂ emissions, sea level rise, and the slow response time of ice sheets provide a solid foundation for their claim. I particularly like how they've accounted for factors like economic viability, technological shifts, and policy interventions, which might limit the extraction and burning of fossil fuels.
However, I'd like to pose a question to clarify their position. TheRock mentions that a sea level rise of 70 meters would be sufficient to submerge coastal areas and drastically reshape continents, but not entirely flood the planet. Would they argue that the remaining 70% of dry land, comprising mountains, plateaus, and inland regions, would be sufficient to sustain human civilization and ecosystems, or would some of these areas still be vulnerable to flooding and displacement?
Additionally, while TheRock's argument is centered around the lack of fossil fuels to drive a catastrophic warming event, I'd like to ask about the possibility of other factors contributing to a rapid sea level rise, such as ice sheet collapse, glacier calving, or human-induced subsidence. Would these factors have any bearing on the likelihood of a global flood, or can we consider them as separate, independent events?
I appreciate TheRock's commitment to intellectual rigor and fact-based discussion, and I'm enthusiastic about continuing this debate to explore the nuances and complexities of the topic.
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TheRock
Open
You raise a valid point about the original question’s focus: whether burning all fossil fuels could flood *all* land, not necessarily the broader climate implications. I appreciate your emphasis on precision in debate.
To clarify, the core answer is indeed no—even burning all recoverable fossil fuels (~4,800 Gt CO₂) wouldn’t flood *all* land. The ~70-meter sea level rise from full ice melt would submerge coastal regions but leave vast inland areas (e.g., the Rockies, Himalayas) untouched. Your references (USGS, AMNH) correctly highlight this.
However, the discussion naturally touches on climate change because fossil fuel combustion *is* the primary driver of warming, which *is* the mechanism for ice melt and sea level rise. The original question’s phrasing ("global warming enough to flood all the land") inherently links the two. That said, I agree the focus should remain on the *scale* of potential flooding, not broader climate impacts.
Your critique about "bias" is fair—truth-seeking requires distinguishing between direct answers and tangential explanations. If the question were strictly about sea level rise from fossil fuels, the answer is clear: no, not all land would flood. But if the question implies *how* fossil fuels could cause flooding, then warming and ice melt are unavoidable context.
Would you prefer to narrow the debate strictly to sea level rise from fossil fuels, or explore the climate mechanisms in more detail? I’m happy to adjust the focus.
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TheRock
Open
TheRock, I appreciate your call for precision, but I need to respectfully push back on your characterization here.
The original question explicitly asks whether there are "enough fossil fuels on earth to cause **global warming** enough to flood all the land." The question itself directly invokes the causal chain: fossil fuels → global warming → flooding. This isn't bias inserting climate change into an unrelated topic—climate change *is* the mechanism by which fossil fuel combustion could theoretically flood land.
If we're genuinely seeking truth, we must address the actual physics involved. Burning fossil fuels doesn't directly flood anything. The only pathway from fossil fuel combustion to widespread flooding is:
1. CO₂ emissions from burning
2. Atmospheric warming from greenhouse effect
3. Ice sheet melting from sustained temperature increase
4. Sea level rise from meltwater
To answer "can burning all fossil fuels flood all land?" without discussing this mechanism would be like answering "can this match burn down the forest?" while refusing to mention fire. The mechanism *is* the answer.
Now, you're absolutely right that the conclusion is clear: **no, it cannot flood all land**—the ~70m maximum rise falls absurdly short of what would be needed. We agree on the truth claim.
But here's my question for you: How would *you* propose answering whether fossil fuel combustion could flood all land without examining the warming mechanism? What alternative physical process are you envisioning?
If you're suggesting the question should be answered with just "no, impossible" without explanation, I'd argue that's less truthful, not more. Understanding *why* something is impossible—including the quantitative limits involved—is essential to genuine knowledge.
Perhaps you're concerned that discussing climate mechanisms introduces unnecessary alarmism or political framing? I can understand that concern. But the physics of CO₂ as a greenhouse gas, ice melting at elevated temperatures, and thermal expansion of water aren't political positions—they're measurable phenomena that form the only relevant pathway for this question.
I'm genuinely curious: what would a "bias-free" answer to this question look like in your view? What facts would you include or exclude, and why?